It's time to review and breakdown what is undoubtedly the toughest puzzle to solve in the jumps racing calendar. It doesn't feel like 5 minutes since Minella Times ran out the six and-a-half length winner making Rachel Blackmore the first female jockey to win the grand national for Henry De Bromhead, who had also trained last seasons champion hurdle winner, and gold cup 1-2.
Trying to find the winner of the Grand National is like trying to find a needle in a haystack (sort of) so I my usual approach is to try and cut as many of the field out as I can based on trends.
However, the grand national in recent years has seen some better quality horses surface as the winners, as opposed to strictly the best plodders and I think that this year it's a really strong field to get stuck into, but with that comes with plenty of weight for the better class of horse to give away.
So this year, I'm using trends a little more loosely. I have backed 3 horses for tomorrow's race, plus have one antepost selection.
Some of the trends I have used this time around:
Aged between 9-11 years old: 25 of the last 30 renewals were won by horses aged 9 or older, while no 13-year-old has won since 1923 or placed since 1969. However, four eight-year-old's have won in since 2015 - (4/6).
Weight - Carrying between 10-3 and 10-12: 20 of the last 20 winners all carried over 10st3lbs. This trend is pretty much a given nowadays given the better recent class of horse in the grand national. 21 of the last 28 winners have all carried 10-12 or less. Only 2 of 120 horses have won carrying 11st5lbs or more - Many Clouds in 2015 & Tiger Roll in 2019. Given the better class of horse in the race now, I think you have to be more open minded with this trend and consider horses carrying more than the above mentioned 10-12, but they'd still do well to win giving so much weight away to such a big field.
Experience: 20 of the last 20 winners all had 10 or more runs over fences.
Fitness: 28 of the last 29 winners ran no more than 55 days prior to the grand national.
Familiar faces: This is a personal one, but I am not keen on backing horses that have tried to win the national in the past as it can an awful lot out of a horse and it's rare that you see them bounce back to their best after the grand national test.
Selections:
For me, the obvious starting point has to be Eclair Surf having seen Win My Wings win the Welsh national last weekend without breaking a sweat. The Welsh national winner also won the Eider Chase at Newcastle and was followed home by Eclair Surf who was 1 and 3 quarters of a length behind in 2nd giving the winner 11lbs.
Eclair Surf has improved with the longer trips and won the Classic Chase at Warwick where he won by a clear 13 lengths. In second was Gericault Roque who went on to finish 2nd in the Ultima handicap chase at Cheltenham, franking that form.
On the basis of the above, Eclair Surf could well be the best handicapped horse in the race
My next selection is Longhouse Poet. I'm a big fan of the Thyestes form where Longhouse Poet had a number of this Grand national field strung out behind him that day in a race that the yard have won in the past with subsequent Grand National and Irish national winner, Numbersixvalverde. What was most noticeable about that run was that he didn't get the best trip throughout the race, racing out wide for the majority of it. He was then given a spin over hurdles on his last outing, which will no doubt have been a prep run. The selection has a touch of class about him to, having hit the frame in a couple of grade one races as a novice chaser.
He is a strong traveller and looks as though the stamina test will be up his street in the grand national and I think he will improve for the trip.
My final selection on the day is Death Duty. He was a Grade 1 winning novice chaser and appears to be rediscovering some of his best form again at the ripe age of 11 having won a handicap at Punchestown where he was pulling clear. He then ran a very good race in the Ultima handicap chase at Cheltenham against younger horses where he was travelling nicely before a mistake just put him on the back foot while he was making a move to chase the leading trio. We know that Death Duty stays for fun and will love the stamina test.
Death Duty also ran in the Thyestes which was won by Longhouse Poet, albeit way back in the field finishing 7th. He comes into the Grand National carrying 10st7lbs which is a nice enough racing wait for Death Duty. Whether he is good enough to win is one thing, but I think he has a superb chance of at least hitting the frame when he will be doing his best work towards the end of the race staying on where others will be struggling and with most bookmakers offering 6 places at odds of 40/1 it's an appealing bet.
Antepost
Enjoy D'allen. Winner of 2 chases last season, finishing off his season with a good 3rd in the Irish Grand National and he is getting 10lbs from the runner up that day (Run Wild Fred) who has run some very respectable races this campaign and most recently a good second to Stattler in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The winner of that race (Freewheelin Dylan) has failed to kick on from the win that day and get's 1lb from Enjoy D'Allen but Enjoy D'allen would comfortably have the beating of him on these terms. He has had a couple of spins over hurdles this season on either side of a sole chase start and it all looks to be planned with the Grand National in mind. We know he stayed the 3m5f Irish National trip and he shapes as if the longer trip would suit further still.
Summary:
Eclair Surf 14/1 each way
Longhouse Poet 16/1 each way
Death Duty 40/1 each way
Enjoy D'Allen 40/1 each way (antepost) - 14/1 general
Good luck!
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