Cheltenham - December Gold Cup

Gerimade - 2025 December Gold Cup winner.

December Gold Cup Trends:

• 9 of last 11 winners aged 6-8

• 0 of last 11 winners were favs. 3/11 were top 3 in the betting

• 8 of last 11 winners carried less than 11-0

• 4 of the last 11 winners won on last run.

• 11 of last 11 winners ran in last 36 days

• 6 of 11 winners ran in paddy power GC on last run (0/6 won, 2/6 placed)

• 9 of last 11 had at least 2 previous runs at Cheltenham (3/11 had a previous win)

• 10/11 had 5 runs over 19-21 furlongs. 11/11 had previous win between 19-21 furlongs 

• 11 of 11 had 5 previous chase runs (9/11 had 2 chase wins)

• 11/11 rated 132 or higher 

• 4/11 had previous win in grade 1-3 race

• 7/11 had 2 runs that season. 8/11 had a win that season

Greenall and Guerriero know that there is more to come from one of their stable stars in Jagwar who is clearly talented and on a big upward trajectory, but has a big trend to overcome in order to win this years renewal of the December Gold Cup. Each of the most recent 11 winners has had a run within the last 36 days prior and Jagwar has not seen the track yet this season, last featuring here at the festival where he ran out a pretty comfortable winner of the festival plate. Giving plenty of weight away to all but one runner, his current price of 4/1, at the time of writing, makes him a difficult bet to get behind.

Vincenzo was runner up to Skeltons Panic Attack in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month who then followed up with another superb win in the Coral Gold Cup just two weeks later. 

My theory is that Vincenzo would have been primed to win that day given Sam Thomas’ being such a quality target trainer but more notably due to his early season form at the time. Prior to Vincenzos run in November, Thomas’ trainer form read 01210F1111F, including 5 winners on reappearance which suggested he had his horses ready. For that reason I’m not certain Vincenzo will improve again. One thing that does concern me is that Vincenzo’s winning has all come over 2m and has placed over the middle/distance trips on 6 occasions - admittedly his best efforts over the trip have come in his last two appearances (144 RPR). He also carries an extra 2lbs for his effort the last day.

Hoe Joly Smoke returns to Cheltenham running off the same mark as his 3rd place finish in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month when he came home 2 lengths behind Vincenzo. With Vincenzo’s 2lb hike this theoretically matches them up. He posted his best RPR over this trip in his Paddy Power Gold Cup effort but he is another who I don't think is seen to best effect over the middle-distances and does his winning over 3m+. Based on price he is hard for me to back, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pick up the pieces and scoop up some place money.

Kim Roque is a runner that I'm struggling to get a handle on if I am being honest. He has shortened in the market over the past week and is a general 6/1 now. Trends would suggest that age is against him with 9 of the last 11 winners being aged 6-8 (Coole Cody won as a 10 y-o and Frodon won as a 4 y-o). Jospeh O'Brien has sent runners to the November and December meetings at Cheltenham in the past to pick up some prizes so he does have previous. I don't want to make everything about the Cheltenham festival with my way of thinking, but part of me wonders whether this is another sighter and another chance Jospeh O'Brien to see where his horse would rank as a novice handicap chaser with a view to the reinstated Novice Handicap Chase in March. I just fail to see how he features here having been beaten by now 128-rated Kdeux Saint Fray last time out here at Cheltenham.

Next up in the betting is Colonel Harry. It was stated by Jamie Snowden that this has been the comeback plan for the son of Schirocco since his fall here in January which led to a flesh-eating injury for the horse. He made a spectacular comeback winning the Grand Sefton last month in professional manner. My case for Colonel Harry can be read in my antepost write-up here.