We're now just one sleep away from the greatest show on turf getting underway and I wanted to put some words together and disect what I can of the races and offer some selections.
I will try to find a selection for reach race but may take a little more time for consideration and be added on the day of the race.
Updates:
11th March - 3pm: Day one published
11th March - 3.45pm: Day two being drafted - aiming to publish tonight.
11th March - 9.35pm: Day two published. Selections added for Coral Cup. Write ups to follow tonight/tomorrow.
12th March - 9.45pm: Day two write ups complete.
12th March - 10.30pm: Early write up for Kim Muir added
13th March - 10.15pm: Thursday selections added. Some early Friday selections added. Write-ups to follow
14th March - 10.15am: Pertemps selection updated (Thursday 2.10). No time for write up.
14th March - 10.15pm: Friday selections finalised and write ups added. Martin Pipe write up to follow tomorrow am.
**Note: Prices may not be accurate and may differ between time of post being written and being read.
Tuesday - Champions Day
Supreme novices hurdle (2m):
Straight away we're into what looks like a really tricky race to solve now that we know that Ballyburn will be running Baring Bingham or whatever it is called these days.
Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have dominated this race in recent times and the former runs the first two in the betting with Chevely Parks Tullyhill and JP's Mystical Power. I've been finding it hard to be convinced by what Tullyhill has done over hurdles with his debut being a real disappointment and having looked like he had never jumped a hurdle before and showing real inexperience in his racing over what might have turned out to have been an inadequate trip. He was then dropped down to two miles winning well from the front against poor field but with an improved jumping display. He was then a completely different animal altogether at Punchestown. It was nothing spectacular, but very straight forward in that he maintained a strong gallop from the front and running the rest into submission. Third that day (Jigaro) was 9-lenghts behind Tullyhill and was previously 7 lengths behind the 2nd fav for the supreme, Mystical Power.
Mystical Power comes with a big reputation based on his breeding (Annie Power x Galileo). I was quite impressed with his hurdles debut at Galway where he wasn't exactly slick at his hurdles, but was comfortable in the hustle and bustle of the bigger field and before he powered his way to the front and won well. He then went on the win the Moscow Flyer which has produced numerous Festival winners over the years including last years Ballymore Winner (Impaire Et Passe). His jumping that day left room for improvement still, but he was able to navigate his way through the gaps when they appeared pretty well having gotten into some trouble in running. What his jumping lacked, he made up for with his impressive turn of foot to put the race to bed.
I just wonder whether either of these Mullins runners jump well enough to win a Supreme.
I was surprised to see Slade Steel run here and fully expected him to run in Wednesdays novice event but this may be a result of avoiding Ballyburn. The form of his maiden hurdle has worked out well and is respectable form for a maiden hurdle in honesty(2nd that day, King of Kingsfield, is now short fav for the County hurdle) and he followed up with a solid Grade 2 win over 2m4f beating Albert Bartlett hopeful Lecky Watson who looks made for the longer trip. It was then a slight surprise to see Henry De Bromheads charge line up over 2 miles at the DRF where he was a very good 2nd to Mullins' Ballyburn and putting 7 lengths between himself and 3rd, King of Kingsfield (again). Slade Steel certainly commands respect based on his 2nd at the DRF, but he is beatable. One thing we do know is that Henry De Bromhead will have him in great nick on the day.
Jeriko Du Reponet is another who comes with a big reputation for JP McManus. Trained by Nicky Henderson, he travelled ever so well on his debut and won with relative ease, jumping nicely and putting the race to bed without any fuss. 2nd that day had previously won cosily on hurdles debut. Hendersons charge was pushed out after his Doncaster victory last time after getting into a battle at the finish in what was a slowly run race and would not have suited at all, but that form has since worked out well with 2nd and 5th (Lump Sum and El Elefante) winning since, with 3rd place finishing runner up to Lump Sum in the Grade 2 Dovecoat. Jeriko Du Reponet does remain largely unexposed but there is probably a question mark around the quality of what he has beaten and he more to find based on RPRs. That said, I do think he will improve again and the strong pace of a supreme will certainly play to his strengths. With question marks over those at the top of the market it may pay to take them on. Nicky Henderson has a good record in the race and knows how to train them for a supreme.
Finally, of the main protagonists, Gordon Elliot saddles Firefox who got the better of Ballyburn who was making his debut in December over 2 miles and it was evident that at the time, Willie Mullins runners were in dire need of the run. I also thought this was a slowly run race which turns into a sprint and with Firefox already having had a run under his belt, was able to extend and beat Ballyburn by 2 and a half lengths.
He was well beaten in the Lawlors of Naas having travelled into the final stages better than anything else in the field but couldn't go with the front two who pulled clear of the rest. Firefox was found to have been found lame post-race so could be excuses for the run but his best form has come over two miles and with his high cruising speed and his ability to kick on and put a race to bed, he has to come under consideration if he is in good condition for the big day which you would assume he will be.
A mention has to go to Ben Paulings Tellherthename who has attracted support following a few mentions on the preview circuit. It's hard to know what he has beaten, but he has done it impressively. Pauling mentioned that Tellherthename would have hated the softer ground at Aintree so you can put a line through that run. This could be a horse to keep an eye on going forwards but I would have ground concerns based on previous comments given the likelihood of there being soft in the description on Tuesday.
Selection:
Jeriko Du Reponet - 8/1 each way
Arkle novices chase (2m):
Another difficult puzzle to solve in the shape of the Arkle to follow on from the opener.
There was talk ahead of declarations that Gaelic Warrior could run here and that is now the case following this mornings decs at 10am. He now heads the market at 4/1 and really divides opinion. He is the class horse in the race, but his tendency to jump right could cause him to lose lengths at every obstacle. I imagine he would be odds-on if he was going right-handed but then its a case of aunties, uncles and bollocks.
He is more than capable of going from the front and running them ragged if his jumping can be brushed up. His jumping wasn't as violently right as it can be at the DRF last time out. If he can jump out in front then it's likely that no one will want to be on his outside giving him a clear run and if they do, then there is a chance he will jump straighter. Paul Townend has also opted to ride Gaelic Warrior over Il Etait Temps. Admittedly I have done a complete u-turn on this horse over the past 24-48 hours and at the current 4/1 he does appeal.
Il Etait Temps won the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown having headed Found A Fifty late on despite his opponent getting the run of the race. While this horse now has one up on some of the Arkle contenders, he has underwhelmed on his two starts at Cheltenham which is a concern for me.I can almost forgive his triumph hurdle run, but there were no excuses for his run in the supreme.
Found A Fifty was only beaten a neck that day by Il Etait Temps having got first run was was there to be shot at. His jumping was improved having jumped violently right on his previous outing but there was still a slight tendency to jump right. That would need to be ironed out completely on the day and could still be a cause for concern. A big negative for me is that he has never been to Cheltenham which 11 of the previous 12 winners have done and the word is that he done not travel too well.
Hunters Yarn has clearly improved for a fence and some sun on his back. He was absolutely cruising when he came down on chase debut when 5 lengths clear of his nearest opponent who was well clear of the rest. He then made light work on reappearance when winning his beginners chase, despite a couple of errors including clattering the fence two from home, he was able to recompose and canter on home beating the now 136-rated Path D'oroux. Generally speaking, it would be a big ask to go and win an Arkle of the back of a sinle beginners chase success, but Willie Mullins did perform that feat with Duc De Genevre back in 2019 which was a wide open renewal of the race and this year certainly has a similar feel to it.
JPR One has been touted by a few pundits but meaning no disrespect, I would be disappointed if he were to run out the Arkle winner. However, as mentioned this year is ripe for an upset so may not be a shock, but would be one that I'd be afraid to part with my cash to back. Admittedly, he was unfortunate in the Henry VIII at Sandown, stumbling when landing at the 2nd last and being passed and also unseated when he would have won on his last visit to Cheltenham. When comparing RPRs with the field, he ranks highly and should be able to mix it and there should be no cause for concern re soft ground. Henry De Bromhead saddles Quilixios here and is another of interest. A previous Cheltenham Festival winner(2021 Triumph Hurdle) he comes here off the back of a respectable victory at Naas beating Sa Fureur by 2 and a half lengths travelling strongly throughout and winning relatively comfortably. You have to put a line through his previous run when 6th in the Florida Pearl at Punchestown where he was tried over 3 miles which clearly isn't his trip but also factor in that he may well have bounced on his 2nd start after 600+ days off the track. Henry De Bromhead has got his horses firing bang on time yet again ahead of Cheltenham and boasts a record of 6 wins in 11 on soft ground.
Selection:
Gaelic Warrior - 4/1
Ultima handicap chase (3m1f):
Plenty of runners in this field so I will be sticking to those of interest. As a general rule of thumb, I tend to discard Irish runners based on their poor record in the race (last winner in 2006 courtest of Dun Doire). A couple of other trends I tend to stick to quite keenly are:
Headgear: 9 of the last 12 winners have worn headgear (5 wore cheekpieces, 4 wore blinkers)
Prominent in betting: 2/12 winners were fav or joint favs, 6/12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
I've long been a fan of Monbeg Genius for Jonjo O'Neil and have backed him antepost for both this race and the Grand National at bigger prices. The thought process being that they may follow a similar route to Corach Rambler last year in attempt to win National success. I will back again on the day if 10/1 or above.
Monbeg Genius ran in this race last year, when a 2 and a quarter-length 3rd to subsequent Grand National hero Corach Rambler and Gold Cup hopeful Fastorslow. Which is probably the strongest form on offer in the race and being 7lbs higher now may not be enough to stop him.
He travelled strongly throughout the race last year and navigated his way through the field well to challenge the eventual 1st and 2nd before they went away. After pulling up on his reappreance at Ascot he ran in the Coral cup at Newbury where he read the script perfectly and finished a 10-length 3rd. T
He comes into this of the back of a somewhat bizarre and disappointing prep, but I am clinging on to the fact that connections stated that the Ultima would be next should Kelso not go to plan. Jonjo O'Neil is the leading trainer of this race over the last 20 years, with three winners courtesy of Wichita Lineman(2009), Alfie Sherrin(2012) and Holywell(2014). I will be hoping he can make it four.
The other horse I like in this race is Kim Bailey trained Chianti Classico and has been popular on the preview circuit meaning he is now as short as 8/1.
Making his chase debut at Chepstow earlier in the season, he put on a bold jumping display and looked like a seasoned pro, gaining ground at every fence. He has been campaigned expertly, with Kim Bailey able to get experience into him without the handicapper being able to dish out too much punishment with him winning by a smaller margin while giving weight away at Ascot and then having only been beaten 2-lengths to Flegmatik after racing wide throughout. The yard went close 2 years ago with Happygolucky who was 2nd off a similar mark and I'm hopeful that they can go one better. Chianti Classico looks to have been primed for this and I'm hopeful for a big run.
Selection:
Monbeg Genius - 14/1 each way
Chianti Classico - 8/1 each way
*Antepost: Monbeg Genius - 20/1 each way & 33/1 each way
Champion hurdle (2m):
It will take a special performance from anything in this field to beat State Man barring a mishap so it is purely a case of playing for places. It will be disappointing that we won't get to see the State Man vs Constitution Hill clash that was highly anticipated, but part of me is pleased that State Man has a open goal to get a Champion Hurdle on his record and hopefully next year we get to see the titans clash.
Iberico Lord is an interesting one having originally being aimed at the County Hurdle, he was rerouted to the Champion Hurdle given the weaker field. He is a huge improver and is yet to reach his ceiling. Soft ground for him will right up his street and he seems to be improving with each run. He has attracted support in the market having been backed into 12/1 from the original 20/1 which was quoted once the news of his new target had broke. That said, he has plenty to find with the top two in the market and still has to overcome the reaminder of the field, some of whom have competed previously in graded races, whereas Iberico Lord has only contested good handicaps.
I'm a fan of Irish Point and think there are plenty of prizes ahead of him, but isn't a betting prospect for me given he price of 5/1 and having won on heavy ground over 3 miles last time out, I'm not sure that a 2m Championship race is what he'd want.
Selection:
No bet
Mares hurdle (2m4f):
There is no doubt that Lossiemouth could be another very special mare for Willie Mullins, but there are a couple of niggling doubts that make me want to take her on.
First of all, she is a five year old, and this race is full of experienced mares who have competed at the top level including multiple Grade 1 runner Ashroe Diamond, Mares Novices Hurdle winners Love Envoi, Tellmesomethinggirl & You Wear It Well, as well as former Mares Hurdle winner Marie's Rock.
While Lossiemouth looked special at Cheltenham last time out, she was getting weight all around including 1lb from Love Envoi who was 9 lengths back in 2nd. However, Love Envoi will have been far from ripe that day and with this race being the only thing in mind during that prep. I'm also of the opinion that First Street was there to stretch his legs and get another spin around Cheltenham ahead of the coral cup handicap. Rubaud and Guard Your Dreams have both been well beaten since then in Grade 2 races.
Lossiemouth will also have to venture into the unknown where the trip is concerned and on that soft ground, could be a big challenge. I am not saying by any means that she will not win, but at her current price of 8/13 she is hard to back.
Ashroe Diamond has been performing admirably against the boys in some tough Grade 1 races and beat stablemate Gala Marceau comfortably at Doncaster last time out, but at a general 9/2 is also lacking value against what could potentially be a superstar.
I really like Love Envoi here. As previously mentioned, she will not have been fully wound up when 9-length 2nd to Lossiemouth last time out. On Tuesday, she will primed and she will relish the soft ground as well as the extra half mile. Both of which she is proven on as well as being a previous festival winner. Let's not forget she was an agonising 1 and a half-length 2nd to superstar Honeysuckle in the Mares Hurdle last year in soft conditions too. Lossiemouth has to prove she could match, or better, Honeysuckles performance from that day, but she is capable. At 14/1 Love Envoi is excellent each way value and I am hoping that she does not shorten too much in the betting on the day.
Selection:
Love Envoi - 14/1 each way
Juvenile handicap hurdle (2m):
No strong opinions in this race but one that did catch the eye was Palamon. The maiden hurdle race at Naas won by Ndaawi has produced 4 of the last 5 winners of the Boodles (Jazzy Matty 2023, Brazil 2022, Aramax 2020 & Band Of Outlaws 2019). Ndaawi ran out a facile 2 and a half-length winner with Palamon 3 and 3 quarter-lengths back in third, but it was the manner in which he raced that stuck with me. He was back in the field for the majority of the race where he had some cover and a bit of a clear passage around the outside. Sean Flanagan made a move 3 out and made very good ground and gave what I thought was a bit of an animated ride to finish quite a comfortable third.
Palamon now runs in the boodles off a mark of 121 (10-13) which is a lovely racing weight, getting 13 lbs from Ndaawi and with a more prominent/positive ride will have the beating of Ndaawi and I just hope it's enough to beat the rest of the opposition.
Just to add some confidence to the selection, there is a fascinating stat/trend that my good pal Lee (@Bradshawww) brought to the table on our annual preview night.
9/10 winners: The dams sire had group form at Longchamp
10/10 winners: The dams sire had winning group form at Longchamp
The top table lists the runners who have group winning form on the dams sire's side.
Palamons dams sire boasts a 100% win record in group races at Longchamp. Pacini is the only other horse in the field that ticks that box. Last years winner, Jazzy matty for Gordon Elliot, was the only exception to the rule over the past 10 years.
Selection:
Palamon - 22/1 each way
National hunt chase (3m5f):
I have no real strong views on this race as yet, I do however want to oppose Corbetts Cross. Tipped up as the class horse in the race across majority of preview nights, I have real concerns over his jumping and given the 3m6f trip and the 23 fences to jump, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't complete.
Embassy Gardens has looked classy this season and made for the trip but his visit to Cheltenham last year would be a concern given he pulled up having raced so freely so you'd have to be a forgiving person to back him at the current 15/8 on offer.
I wasn't sure where else to look for a betting angle in the race until a good friend pointed me in the direction of the Reynoldstown form producing winners and placed horses in this race. The two runners here that ran in the Reynoldstown are Kilbeg King and Henry's Friend for Anthony Honeyball and Ben Pauling respectively. They may come under consideration on the day but won't be a race I'll be getting stuck into heavily.
Selection:
No bet.
Wednesday - Ladies Day
Baring Bingham novices hurdle (2m5f):
I will keep it short for this race as I think Ballyburn is the obvious winner but is now too short to back. Having got on at some bigger prices right after his bumper win I do have invested interest but wouldn't be touching anything on the day. maybe lengths betting if that is your thing but not for me.
Here is my summary for the bumper last year where I had hoped to have seen Ballyburn run. I thought he was a bit special after his bumper win where supreme favourite Tullyhill was back in second.
Selection:
No bet
*Antepost: Ballburn 20/1 and 16/1
Brown Advisory novices chase (3m):
Fact To File comes here having been hyped up across numerous preview panels having beaten Gaelic Warrior with ease last time out. Tony Mullins will have you believe he is the second coming and the price of 10/11 might be pretty generous if you take his word for it. Willie Mullins has opted to send Fact To File straight over fences following a short bumper career where he was beaten only by A Dream To Share on two occasions including at the 2023 festival.
He was beaten comfortably by American Mike over the middle distance at Navan on chase debut during a period where Willie Mullins' runners were needing that first run for fitness. He since went on to score cosily by 17 lengths from Zanahiyr before that head to head with Gaelic Warrior which really fell apart. It's virtually impossible to ever read into the form of a two-runner race whatever the level of competition. Clearly is is very highly regarded by connections and is next years gold cup horse by all accounts but he strikes me as still being quite raw and at the price I'm happy to take him on with something more battle hardened.
That brings me to Stay Away Fay. Impressive winner of the Albert Bartlett in 2023, he has continued to impress over the larger obstacles. He was ran close on his chase debut at Exeter where he was headed before rallying late on and led again late on which to me is the sign of a very good horse. He then went on to contest the Grade 2 at Sandown in December where for large parts of the race it looks like Giovinco was just going to gallop for fun and win going away, but Stay Away Fay just kept finding for pressure to the point that he got Giovinco into a race and outstayed him. His best piece of form came in the Cotswold chase in January where he travelled strongly in the latter stages after coming under pressure and galloped past seasoned pros in Ahoy Senor and Royale Pagaille but the eventual winner, Capodanno, just wasn't going to be caught and he was giving him 3lbs that day as a novice.
Monty's Star has come in for a lot of support over recent weeks for Henry De Bromhead and Rachel Blackmore but similar to Fact To File he is quite lightly raced. In his two chase starts he was beaten by Corbetts Cross and Three Card Brag. I'm finding it difficult to put a finger on Corbetts Cross who won that day over 2m5f but now runs in the National Hunt chase and was going very well over 3m in the Albert Bartlett last year before running out. I'm not sure this would be the biggest form boost to Monty's star. He then reversed the form with Three Card Brag next time out, beating him by 5 and a half lengths, staying on well but was also superior in the jumping department. He probably has a bit to find with market rivals but he so unexposed so it's not an impossible task and Henry De Bromhead will have him peaking this week. Jumping is his biggest assest so if any of his rivals were to make any mistakes, he will be able to take advantage.
Of the rest I am not sure that Giovinco has had the best prep having been pulled up at Kempton after his 2nd to Stay Away Fay and then winning at a canter over a shorter trip on heavy ground against one rival who is now rated 119. American Mike was a late supplement for this race and he beat Fact To File earlier this season but that was a different horse to what reopposes this time around. He is good when he fancies it but I find him hard to trust and am happy to leave him unbacked. Finally, Sandor Clegane has stamina in abundance and was a fine 3rd behind Stay Away Fay when beaten by 1 and a quarter-length by Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlett but his chase form this season leaves a lot to be desired.
Selection:
Stay Away Fay - 100/30
Coral cup handicap hurdle (2m5f):
Likely no bet on the day for me in this race. I have taken the two Henderson runners in Doddiethegreat and First Street at 20/1 a piece. First Street was as short as 12/1 recently but has drifted out again. Doddiethegreat is a general 7/1 which is encouraging given the current cloud above the Henderson stableform/wellbeing of runners.
The price for Built By Ballymore is now long gone having been hammered in over the last 24 hours and I couldn't back it so short in a big field handicap. Langer Dan has to be of interest running off the same mark that he won off last year.
Selection:
No bet
*Antepost: Doddiethegreat - 20/1 each way
*Antepost: First Street - 20/1 each way (non runner)
Champion chase (2m):
I'll keep this one short. I don't think El Fabiolo gets beaten here unless he blunders at a fence. I would be majorly concerned by Jonbons jumping performance last time out and even more so by the schooling video that was posted by Nicky Hendersons media team where he took 3 fences with him. I have no idea why they posted that. Edwardstone has to be ridden from the front again as he was in the Game Spirit chase at Newbury. Sending him out from the front seemed to have rejuvenated him and I'd be amazed if they switched things up here. Whether he can maintain that gallop around Cheltenham with stronger opposition hunting him down is a completely different kettle of fish but they'll have to catch him. One I could see sneaking into the places is Captain Guiness for Henry De Bromhead. He has placed twice in 3 visits to Cheltenham having been brought down in the Supreme Novices hurdle in 2020. I think he will be ridden to pick up the pieces when they race starts to fall apart in the latter stages and is more than capable of doing so. The same could be said for Willie Mullins Gentleman De Mee who seems to save his best form for spring time but he would need to improve a fair bit to do so.
Selection:
No bet
Cross country chase (3m5f):
I have backed Minella Indo antepost for this race, taking the 10/1 on offer immediately after he crossed the line on his Cross Country debut back in December. He appeared to live the obstacles that date and appeared to have been rejuvenated by the challenge. He travelled strongly throughout and laid down a good challenge in the closing stages but found the concession over almost 2 stone a tad too much. Running off levels in this contest should have him well ahead of those that finished ahead of him that day. The reports of the boggy ground on the cross country course would concern me somewhat, but he is a dour stayer and am happy to let him run his race at the antepost price. Minella Indo has been given a break and comes into this fresh and a big run is expected. One that will not mind the heavy ground at all is Delta Work who won this contest for two years running on heavy and soft ground. He may be the play on the day if the price holds out at the current 11/4 and I suspect that it may.
Outside of the front two in the market I don't have much interest. I think Galvin would be good ground dependant. Coko Beach relished the Cross Country challenge when tried but I don't know if he'd have the class to beat Delta Work or Minella Indo.
Selection:
Delta Work - 11/4 (race abandoned)
*Antepost: Minella Indo - 10/1 each way (race abandoned)
Grand annual handicap chase (2m):
Sa Fureur caught the eye for me on a couple of occassions this season and was one I had bookmarked for this race or the 2m5f handicap chase. I will pleased to see him declared for the 2m race.
He made his chase debut at Navan in a beginners chase, travelling and jumping well when prominent throughout the race and was tracking the leaders when jumping wildly to his left and hitting the fence in the process. His jumping until this point wasn't of any concern, and fortunately his jumping since that day has not been much of an issue and going left-handed at Cheltenham should ease any concerns about the jump left.
He followed up on his debut fall with a 40-length win over last years boodles fancy Byker but this was courtesy of a Hunters Yarn fall when beginning to challenge. Sa Fureur posted a 2nd when 2nd to today's Arkle gamble Quilixios and unfortuantely it will be hard to gauge how good that form is with Quilixios missing the start today. He was putting up to De Bromheads charge and he would not have wanted a hike as a result of victory that day, so horse and jockey may well have understood the brief. Sa fureur was also well fancied for last years Coral cup having been the subject of a few tips across the preview circuit before going off favourite. He was pulled up in the latter stages of the race having suffered poor luck in-running and being squeezed out when there was no racing room. The english handicapper has given the selection a 2lb higher mark which probably doesn't do Sa Fureur any favours but he's been running in higher grade races to maintain a reasonable mark. Jack Kennedy riding is a bonus and while I feel there was no man better than Davy Russel around Cheltenham, he was clearly not 100% fit last year so may not have aided the cause in the coral cup.
Selection:
Sa Fureur - 9/1 each way
Champion bumper (2m):
No real strong opinions in this race and it appears that even the Mullins camp don't know there best bumper horse this year. I may take a chance on Teeshan on the day after his debut. He won by a facile 7 lengths in heavy ground at Exeter and may find similar conditions awaiting him here albeit against stronger opposition but he will strip fitter for the run, will have learnt on the job and probably be suited by a stiffer test of pace and stamina. The only other of slight interest would be You Oughta Know who will be ridden by Danny Mullins. I thought he was a tad unlucky in running in the Leopardstown Bumper won by Emmet Mullins' Jeroboam Machin who is no longer running here due to injury. The race tends to throw up bumper winners and while You Oughta Know was 2nd that day, he was two and a half-lengths clear of Redemption Day giving him 3lbs.
Selection:
Teeshan - 10/1 each way
You Oughta Know - 11/1 each way
Thursday - St Patrick's Day
Turners novices chase (2m4f):
Plenty of interest in Facile Vega in this contest based on course/festival form on his two previous appearances at Cheltenham where he was an impressive winner of the Champion Bumper in bottomless ground and a very good 2nd behind Marine Nationale in last years supreme novices hurdle. He is clearly bred to win the trip with his mother, Quevega, being a 6 time consecutive winner of the mares hurdle over the intermediate distance. He will get similar testing conditions and we may see improvement in Facile Vega for stepping up in trip. However, I fear that what we've seen so far hasn't necesarrily suggested he is crying out for a trip, and while that may help, I think he just isn't as good as he may once have been. Mullins is in fine form and if anyone can get Faceil Vega to his best again it is him.
Grey Dawning looks a useful type but feel the 2m5f trip and had the beating of Ginny's Destiny when hitting the last on his last visit to Cheltenham. I feel he just had a mistake in him which could cost the race. I am a big fan of Ginny's Destiny and it's hard to know whether the is more improvement to come or not having been running in good handicaps and a class 2 novice chase. Nicholls and Cobden are also struggling this week so I will avoid.
One that I have u-turned on this evening is Iroko for Greenall/Guerriero team. Prior thinking was quite a stubborn opinion of assuming he could not be backed given lack of preparation following injury earlier this season which was deemed to be season-ending before making a surprise return to training. This is a horse who Greenall/Guerriero has barely scratched the surface with in my opinion and I've long since thought that he is a bit of a tool following his Martin Pipe win last year. While his injury was far from ideal, he is clearly thought to be in good enough health to be running here and his record when fresh since switching to Greenall/Guerriero is 1111 including his Martin Pipe win which came after a 62 day break. He comes here off the back of a 127-day break, the duration of which doesn't give me cause for concern given he has won after breaks of 207 days and 259 days in the past. He has only had 1 chase start which came before his injury. He ran out a facile and seriously improve victor in his novice chase at Warwick where he was foot perfect in his jumping, making ground at every fence before putting the race to bed easily when shaken up. Top rated in this race is Ginny's Destiny and Iroko will have just 6lbs to find and I am confident he is a much better horse. Conditions are a question mark in that he is yet to contest on ground as testing as we have seen over the past couple of days, but switching to the new course and fresh ground with this being the first race should negate that worry.
I hope he is fit enough for this, he is certainly good enough and I hope we get to see him close to his best. If he is, I think he wins.
Selection:
Iroko - 7/1
Pertemps final - handicap hurdle (3m):
No strong opinions on this race as it stands, but I will back White Rhino as 2nd reserve if two horses are withdrawn and with a big black cloud ahanging over the Henderson stable nd numerous NRs, it is likely that we could see Hyland, Chanty House(backed antepost) and/or Mill Green withdrawn.
If that is the case, White Rhino gets in here off a featherwight of 10-3. Having read the script perfectly last time out at Huntingdon to qualify, he was a winner here at Cheltenham on his prior appearance when following up on a very unlucky 2nd at the track when he was unable to get up the rail and was cut off before having to go wide and then the line coming to soon. In hindsight that may well have helped to keep his mark down. He handles the track as evidenced on the two starts mentioned and seems to relish the big field races and can navigate his way through the traffic without issue. With plenty of places on offer with various bookmakers, he has to come be an each way play.
Selection:
White Rhino - 16/1 each way (doesn't get in)
New selection: Gaoth Chuil - 15/2 *Antepost: Chantry House - 40/1 antepost
Ryanair chase (2m5f):
Envoi Allen is the class horse in the race and while he is not getting any older, he has a serious chance to add another Ryanair chase to his record. While I think he is the probably winner of the contest after encouraging reports that he is in rude health currently, the current price of 5/2 doesn't make enough appeal and I'd be happy to watch without an invested interest on this occassion.
Selection:
No bet
Stayers hurdle (3m):
Another race where I am struggling to pinpoint where the winners comes from. Noble Yeats was a good winner last time out in the Cleeve hurdle but twas getting 6lbs from old boy Paisley Park that day who is getting into a habit of notching 2nds to his record.
Teahupoo seems to be the rage for many on the preview circuit over recent weeks but I can't get out of my head that he had perfect conditions to win this race last year and couldn't so at 2/1 I would rather be taking him on.
Crambo could be the new boy on the block in the stayers division and I'd love to see Fergal O'Brien get break his festival duck with this Grade 1 contest. Versatile in the conditions, he is still open to improvement and appears to improve with every run, but is another who beat Paisley Park by just a short head.
Flooring Porter has been here and got the t-shirt (and trophy) twice but it's hard to have confidence behind backing him given he was being campaigned for a tilt at either the Brown Advisory or National Hunt chase before bein redirected over the smaller obstacles. I'm not a fan of constant chopping and changes of a horses program and feel it can do more bad than good and he can be a bit of a lunatic. Maybe that's a good thing?
I am still yet to decide where my money will go, but will see what the market is saying before the race and as it stands it is likely that I may follow my heart over my head and have an each way play on Paisley Park who will be a bigger price than some of the main protagonists despite being pretty well matched based on being headed 3 times this season. I also think that this could be the perfect opprtunity to notch a final victory and make this his swansong. I would not be surprised if that were to happen and I'd love to see Andrew Gemmel in the winners enclosure at Cheltenham once again.
Selection:
No bet - TBC on the day
Festival plate handicap chase (2m5f):
Crebilly has attracted some strong support over the last few weeks and has been tipped up by the likes of Racing Posts Johnny Dineen which has led to him now being as short as 4/1 (only Unibet offering 9/2). The theory is that Crebilly is thrown in off a mark of 140 given he would have beaten Turners fav Ginny's Destiny who is now rated 155. If we assume that Crebilly is indeed 15lbs well in then he stands a fierce chance of winning this, but I have niggling concerns over his jumping and tactics. He fell at the last at the November meeting when challenging the eventual winner and on his next visit he wasn't perfect in his jumping. It does look like something that can be brushed up but at 4/1 in a big field it's hard to get onside.
Theatre Man is another who has attracted support in recent days and has been backed into 7/1. He is another who has a formline with Ginny's Destiny having been beaten 2 lengths but runs off a mark of 137 so also looks to have a fair bit in hand. He relished the hill at Cheltenham and couldn't quite catch the winner. He is relatively lightly raced for an 8-y-o and I don't think the handicapper has quite got him yet. He is one I would have on my shortlist for this race, however, he is short enough for a big field handicap.
Write up for the selection (Shakem Up Arry) to follow tomorrow morning.
Selection:
Shakem Up Arry - 10/1 each way
Mares novices hurdle (2m2f):
Selection:
No bet
Kim Muir amateur jockey's handicap chase (3m2f):
One selection for me in this and is a selection that I backed to win the 3m handicap chase at the October meeting earlier this season.
Whacker Clan was kept busy over the summer having run in 3 handicaps before a short break before which he was sent over to Cheltenham where he ran out a good 3-length winner over Ben Pauling's Twig. Whacker Clan was sent out galloping to make the running and set a very solid pace. He jumped fluently and never really looked in any danger. Stablemate Amirite was cantering that day before pecking on landing and may have laid down a challenge late on but the mistake took his momentum. Twig then came swinging in the latter stages and almost drew level with Whacker Clan on the run in up the hill, but very impressively, Whacker Clan went on again and was able to pull 3 lengths clear. He runs off 6lbs higher on this occassion but I'm not convinced that is enough to stop him.
With another bold front-running display, Whacker Clan has to go close. It's difficult to know whether ground conditions are a concern for the selection as he hasn't run on ground like this, however, had posted a win on his sole win on soft ground and based on how strongly he stayed and went away at Cheltenham in October, I think conditions may be to his strengths especially running from the front and the extra furlong may well suit.
Finally, Twig was a superb 2nd in today's Ultima handicap chase behind Chianti Classico, finishing ahead of Grand National fancy and next years apparent Gold Cup horse (according to David Mullins), Meetingofthewaters. This is a huge form boost to Whacker Clan. Finally, the booking of young John Gleeson who showcased his ability when winning last years Champion Bumper on A Dream To Share, which is a big positive.
Selection:
Whacker Clan - 14/1 each way
Friday - Gold Cup Day
Triumph juvenile hurdle (2m):
The form/issues surrounding the Henderson stable have had an impact on selections and antepost bets this year but hit a new low when Sir Gino was withdrawn.
The irish horses dominate this market and I'm finding it difficult to disect them. The obvious starting point would be the Spring Juvenile at the Dublin Racing Festival won by Kargese and that race has a habit of throwing up the winner of this race (8/12). While the success of that race is well and good, it was the manner in which she won that was impressive in how she settled compared to how keen she was the first day. She came up to challenge and jumped the last cleanly which effectively won her the race before staying on well. The 7lbs mares allowance here is a huge advantage. It is interesting that Paul Townend has opted to ride Storm Heart and this has impacted the market with Mullins other runners drifting slightly. Mullins also saddles Salvador Mundi who beat Sir Gino in Auteuil so could be even better than Hendersons young star, but it's a big gamble to assume he will rock up and put on a show on debut in what is a tough looking Juvenile Grade 1 around Cheltenham but could be worth an each way play if he hits a backable price.
Majborough is potentially completely unexposed with just the one start for Willie Mullins where he was thrown into the thick of it at the DRF in a race where he could have faded away but he stuck to the task gamely. You would expect a big leap from that run and can see why he is current fav.
Joseph O'Briens Nurburgring has been hammered today and understandably given the performance by Lark In The Morning earlier this week in the juvenile handicap and Harsh who was back in 4th. If they have saved this one for the Triumph then they must think quite highly of him.
Selection:
Kargese - 13/2
*Antepost: Sir Gino - 16/1 each way (non-runner)
County handicap hurdle (2m1f):
7 of the last 8 winners of the County hurdle have been won by either Dan Skelton or Willie Mullins and after their handicaps exploits this week, as well as notching a couple of festival Grade 1s I am hopeful that Faivoir can continue their handicap success tomorrow. Only 2lbs higher than last years success and Tristan Durrell takes 3lbs off with his claim. Beaten a nose by Go Dante in the Imperial Cup, I suspect the plan was to go for the bonus and try to land the county hurdle afterwards.
Selection:
Faivoir - 12/1 each way
Albert Bartlett novices hurdle (3m):
I want to keep this quite simple and stick with the Ballyburn form. Dancing City was 6-length second to Ballyburn in the Punchestown bumper last April with Supreme winner Slade Steel in 3rd. Slade Steel was also in second in the Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival and I'd like to think Dancing City will continue to boost that form.
Selection:
Dancing City - 7/1
*Antepost: Shanah Bob - 12/1 each way (non runner)
Gold cup chase (3m2f):
Again without overcomplicating matters, I think Galopin Des Champs wins this provided his stands up. It is hard to see Fastorslow reversing the form and it is difficult to make a case for any of the rest of the field. That said, the current 11/10 is too short for me to get involved so I am more than happy to watch and hope that Galopin Des Champs confirms himself as a great.
Selection:
No bet
Foxhunters chase (3m2f):
No interest.
Selection:
No bet
Mares chase (2m4f):
No interest.
Selection:
No bet
Martin Pipe conditional jockey's handicap hurdle (2m4f)
Write up to follow.
Selection:
Quai De Bourbon - 7/2
*Antepost: Waterford Whispers - 11/1 each way
Good luck!
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