Antepost: Cheltenham - Christmas Meeting

Write-up to follow for Friday and Saturday selections. A couple of lines ahead of then for now.

Antepost selections:

December Gold Cup:

Colonel Harry 8/1 &

Il Ridoto 14/1

Colonel Harry is a horse that was firmly on the shortlist for the Grand Sefton at Aintree last month. The reason I went against him was down to it being his first outing after a long lay off due to injury. Annoyingly he ran out an assertive 2 length winner to Jagwars stablemate Gaboriot. He was raised 4lbs for that success and I think there is more winning in him from his new mark of 148. The current ground forecast at the time of writing is good-to-soft shouldn’t present any issues having won on the surface at Aintree last month, but with some more rain forecast on Friday I’d be hopeful that the ground description may read as soft.

He has only had 2 previous runs at Cheltenham. His first trip came in the Turners Novices Chase won by Grey Dawning where he was never involved. His second visit came at the January meeting where he suffered a heavy fall leading to injury which ruled him out for the rest of the season. His form here would leave a question mark, but he had the class to leave that behind him. 

Jamie Snowden drew up the December Gold Cup as the long-term plan for Colonel Harry during his recovery so his winning return at Aintree may have surprised a few including his trainer. 

Stablemate Ga Law is also expected to run here, who is a previous winner of the November meetings feature race but I do wonder if he’s running here to keep the weight down for his stablemate given that is his plan, while bringing his own mark down in the process for another day.

My other antepost selection in this race is Il Ridoto. Any twitter followers will know that I tweeted about the selection just over a week ago.

I also backed Il Ridoto for the Paddy Power Gold Cup as he was back to just 1lb higher than his win the previous year and Nicholls suggested at the start of the season that that was the plan for him. Unfortunately the conditions went against him on the day. He took it up and led for most the race but just couldn't be competitive at the business end of things but I'd be happy to put a line through that race. Cobden also commented pre-race that he was concerned about the weight his mount would have to carry due to non-runners and being a small horse.

On Saturday he'll only have to carry 11-1 (as it stands at the time of writing). Despite being a winner on soft around Cheltenham, I'll wait to see whether conditions come up too soft for him again on the day before deciding whether to top up on the 20/1 but I'd still rate him a small win bet at the current 14s on offer.

I definitely think Il Ridoto has a nice prize in him off his current mark, especially around Cheltenham. This might be his best chance this season as I do think festival racing would be too competitive for him in something like the festival plate. That said, there is plenty of time for him to get to an even more appealing mark should he not get things his way this weekend.

Veterans Handicap Chase:

Fugitif 7/1

I have taken 7/1 on Fugitif in the veterans race at Cheltenham on Friday. He loves the new course and the run here in November will have dusted off any cobwebs. He lines up with a 7lbs swing with Eldorado Allen who won last time they met and Charlie Maggs is currently jocked up who claims a further 5lbs.

Fugitif is now also 8lbs below last win mark which was over this course and distance in the December Gold Cup in 2023. He also gave a solid effort when 3rd in the 2024 renewal where his mark was probably beyond him as a 9-y-o and having bumped into 2 well handicapped rivals (Madara and Gerimande). The current forecast good-to-soft ground shouldn't present any issues but I wouldn't complain if more rain came. I still think there is plenty of life in the selection and his task should be made a by easier racing in veterans races. Admittedly, I was slightly surprised to see him running in veteran company.

I'm not reading into this too much, but trainer Richard Hobson did like my tweet straight after his November run where I mentioned that I'd like to see him line up again at Cheltenham this month. I just wonder whether that was a small nod at the fact that this may indeed be the plan.

I'm playing a small win only bet for the time being as I'm unable to find any confirmation that this is definitely the plan. I will follow up and have another bet if/when declared.