Aintree - Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2m 5f)

As the weekend approaches, the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree is set to take center stage. This race is a good test of both speed and endurance over the national fences. Previous experience over these fences, while not as crucial as it may have been a few years ago, still rates useful if punting. The Sefton is a pretty competitive renewal this year, but I have one runner in mind that I want to be with in the race at double figures.

First though a look at the line-up after declarations.

Greenall and Guerriero saddle White Rhino who narrowly heads the market at the time of writing at a general 5/1. He has won on his last two reappearances (once over hurdles and once over fences) and got his chasing career well underway with back to back wins last season before coming down in the Kauto Star on boxing day then unseating in the Grimthorpe. There could be more to come from him but his price is skinny enough in what is a tough handicap on seasonal debut with his last two runs throwing up letters rather than numbers. Sean Bowen is an eye-catching jockey booking. Next up is last years winner King Turgeon, who took to the national fences well, racing prominently throughout and winning by just over 3 lengths off a mark of 125. He has since climbed the ratings and now runs off a mark of 137. It's also worth noting that he had a prep run before his 2024 win which he has not had this time around. He may get a nice spin but hard to get onside at 11/2 for me off a much higher mark.

Third in the betting is the Jonjo O'Neil trained Jonnywho for JP McManus. All three of his career wins have come after a break, so he should be respected although he may be seen to best effect over the longer trips now and runs off top weight, having placed in the Kim Muir and the Irish National on his last two starts after a campaign of hide and seek with the handicapper. This may be an opportunity for trainer to give him a spin with another day in mind.

Our Power is an intriguing runner for me, although he will have to overcome the age trend (17 of the last 20 winners have been no older than 9 - he is a 10 year-old. The handicapper appears to have him in his grasp now with revised ratings of 143, 144, 144 & 143 after respective form figures of 2233. However, he always runs in high-class handicap chases and always performs.

Greenall and Guerriero also saddle Gaboriot. Since coming over from France, he has form figures of 313 when running after a break. including last years 4-length third in this race running off a mark of 127. He has been contesting plenty of Hunter Chases over the last couple of years, however, he lines up in handicap company again tomorrow of a mark of 124. He rates as the second-string for the yard with White Rhino and Sean Bowen at the top of the market. Still only a 9 year-old, after 18 career chase starts it's hard to see him improving to defy his mark of 124. If we look past his hunter chase runs, his last handicap win came off a mark of 113.

Frero Banbou is next in the betting with Charlie Deutsch riding for Venetia Williams. Another who will need to buck the age trend being 10 years old. He was 3rd in the 2023 renewal won by Gesskille and 6th in last years edition off 130. He runs off a mark of 130 again this year but is hard to get behind after pulling up on his last two starts. He does his best work away from Aintree in my opinion with course form figures of 493P6P over trips ranging from 2m-3m1f.

Jamie Snowden saddles Colonel Harry who caught the eye too. He is running off a mark of 144 which is 4lbs lower than his last win mark. This horse was on my radar for the festival plate at Cheltenam this year before being ruled out for the season due to injury. Jamie Snowden has since confirmed that the December Gold Cup is the target for Colonel Harry so if he runs here I expect it will be to dust of the cobwebs and maybe even bring his mark down a couple of pounds before a big race at Cheltenham.

Excello is a difficult horse to get behind based on having just the sole victory from 10 starts since transferring to Henderson from France in 2023. However, he is still only a 6 year-old so there may be some improvement to come from him although he has had 10 starts over fences in the UK, 13 if we include his runs in France. It would take a fair bit of trust for anyone to back him.

The rest of the field is made up by Cheltenham winner and veteran Seddon, Skelton-trained Jet Plane, Happy and Fine for Hales, Dylan Cunha sends Mahons Glory followed by the 10 year-old pair of Nocte Volatus & If Not For Dylan trained by Tom Lacey and Russel/Scudamore respectively.

Selection: Our Power - 10/1 each way

*Price taken at the time of writing (6th November @ 1.30pm)

I am siding with the Sam Thomas trained Our Power. He signed off last season running a blinder in the Scottish national, beaten only by two stablemates trained by none other than Willie Mullins who at the time was all out to win the British trainers title. The selection was giving weight away to most of the field that day. Prior to this, he ran into stablemate Katate Dori who was on an upwards trajectory at the time as well as Henderson-trained Hyland who looks to be aimed at the Coral Gold cup in a few weeks time. This was preceded by a great run around Cheltenham where he tracked the leader throughout the majority of the race and led before the last briefly before his elder Chantry House (who was rated 149 and subsequently raised an additional 6lbs for his success that day) reeled him in to win by 6 lengths.

Nine of his career wins have come with good in the description, however, he has won on soft ground and we're likely to see good ground this weekend so no issues there.

As previously mentioned, Our Power will need to overcome the age trend which sees 10 year-olds have a poor record in this race. However, if there is a trainer that can help him overcome this stat it is Sam Thomas. His is one of, if not the best target trainer in the UK in my opinion and he stated in his stable tour that this was the plan for Our Power. Dylan Johnston also takes the ride on Saturday taking a vital 3lbs off. His form reads 1172 after a break of 90+ days which suggests that they will have him right for this, especially being targeted at the race. He ran over the national fences in the 2023 Grand National where backers would be forgiven for getting a bit excited around the second circuit of the race where the only mistakes he made with his jumping came when he was visibly tired due to the grueling trip.

Sam Thomas has started the season in superb form with no less than five winners on their seasonal reappearance with an overall six winners and one second from 10 runners. This includes Celtic Dino, winner of the Welsh Champion hurdle (also on reappearance). Only 3 of his 10 runners have failed to make the frame (includes 1 faller).

His early season form reads 01210F1111.

It should also be noted that connections won this with Al Dancer in 2023, who also claimed this prize on his seasonal reappearance with Sam Thomas once again showing why he is such a good target trainer.

Good luck!

James