This years Grand National steeplechase will be the 175th renewal of the race which sees 2022 winner Noble Yeats line up as second-favourite as he attempts to retain his crown. 2022 and 2023 Ultima Handicap Chase winner Corach Rambler aims to follow up his second consecutive Cheltenham Festival victory with Grand National success for Lucinda Russell.
With 40 runners lining up to win the Grand National on Saturday, I could be here forever talking about each of their chances but I will limit the write up to my four selections for the race, including one antepost bet.
Selections:
The Big Dog - 16/1 each way
Monasterevin handler Peter Fahey saddles The Big Dog as he aims to land just his second Grade 1 as a trainer. His first Grade 1 win came courtesy of Belfast banter in 2021 which was also at Aintree. Hopefully a good omen. His sole runner goes into the Grand National somewhat under the radar.
The Big Dog will have caught the eye of anyone who watched him contest the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in February.
In four starts this season, The Big Dog has posted two wins in the form of the Munster National as well as the Troytown before a solid Welsh National 3rd when giving weight away all around, including a huge 27lbs (not including David Prichards 5lb claim) to the winner The Two Amigos who finished 6 lengths in front. The Big Dog also carried an additional 4lbs - a penalty for his recent win in the Troytown.
Continuing to improve at the ripe old age of 10, The Big Dog was travelling superbly when falling 2 fences from home. He looked to be running a career best at the time and will surely have featured in the places come the end of the race which saw Galopin Des Champs power away from the rest.
According to Fahey, Jockey Keith Donoghue reported post-race that he couldn't believe how easily the horse was travelling at the time of falling that day. Peter Fahey has also since reported that he sent his charge to Navan for some additional schooling and the horse has not lost his confidence over fences. Another repeat performance of the Leopardstown run coupled with some luck should see The Big Dog run a huge race and hopefully feature come the closing stages.
Roi Mage - 40/1 each way
I can't help but feel that if my next selection was trained by a more fashionable trainer then he would be less than half of the price! Roi Mage was purchased was with the aim of being a Grand National winner and he certainly shapes like a horse that will be at home over these obstacles and over the marathon trip.
One could argue that his unideal prep has contributed to the horse being the price that he is but I like to take a more positive view.
As mentioned, the Grand National has been the plan ever since the horse was purchased and the plan was to run him in last years renewal before failing to make the cut after being dropped a few pounds by the handicapper following 27-length defeat to Teahupoo over hurdles after connections were told the horse would be in the 2022 Grand National.
As a result he saw out his season with a win in the 3m2f race at Down Royal in March 2022 before defeat in the Aintree Hurdle in 2022. Roi Mage then made his seasonal debut at Compiegne in November in what was also his debut over the Cross Country obstacles and he was taking on Frances top 2 cross country horses. He took to the obstacles like a duck to water and finished a two-and-a-half lengths 3rd when giving 7lbs and 14lbs to the winner and second-placed horses respectively.
He then reappeared on new years day in what was an inadequate 2m6f trip at Tramore before going on to contest the rearranged Cross Country contest at Cheltenham in January. He suffered a heavy fall that day and connections feared that the season was over when Roi Mage also suffered quite a severe cut to a hind leg which required 35 stitches. Despite this disappointment, Patrick Mullins (jockey on the day) came in and reported to Patrick Griffin that he was cantering at the time and couldn't quite believe how well his charge was going at the time. Griffin also confirmed that Patrick Mullins wanted to ride the horse in the Cross Country in March had he been an intended runner.
Following his fall and injury, Roi Mage was then out riding again just three weeks later and had only two weeks before reappearing in the 3m2f race at Down Royal. Patrick Griffin admitted that Roi Mage went in to the race without having been able to get a good blow into him which is a real positive when you consider that his runner was beaten only 1 and a quarter-lengths by Grand National rival Longhouse Poet having given away 5lbs to the winner. Roi Mage jumped soundly throughout his race with his sole error coming at the final fence where he just jumped the fence slightly long and may have gone on to win the race with a better jump.
Longhouse Poet finished 6th in last years Grand National and Roi Mage appears on better terms where he will receive 6lb from his rival that day giving him a big 11lb swing in his favour.
It appears that connections of Roi Mage are becoming increasingly bullish as we get closer to the big race and they have every reason to be. They are running a horse who will relish the track, trip and conditions. He also has plenty of graded form in the book and carries a lovely racing weight of 10st8lbs. With a bit of luck he should run very well.
Dunboyne - 50/1 each way
I bit more of a speculative punt with my biggest-priced selection and another of Gordon Elliot's 7 intended runners.
Dunboyne is a bit of a quirky horse and not the most reliable, but on a good day he looks quite talented. If he decides to put it together in the Grand National then we may see a further improved performance.
The selection was running over intermediate trips earlier this season and once refused at Punchestown in November but then went to Gowran Park a week later and won a handicap chase by 10 lengths on heavy ground with the field strung out behind him.
He then ran at Fairyhouse in a decent Handicap chase but according to the jockey he was never travelling and was eventually pulled up. Dunboyne then contested the hot Thyestes Chase when beaten a short head by the Willie Mullins trained Carefully Selected, albeit getting weight from a lot of rivals.
Most recently, Dunboyne ran in the Kim Muir where he was held up in the early stages and finished the race staying on well despite the racing having gotten away from him, but while he was being steered at this point by Jamie Codd, he did pick up again and gave the impression that the extra distance would not be a hindrance and could even be what the horse needs given his better performances have come over 3 miles or further.
Dunboyne's Dam was also a full sister to Heathfield who won over 3m6f at Punchestown and is also related to Ms Parfois who also contested the Aintree Grand National and was a dour stayer and had some smart form in the book over the extended trips, including a 2nd in the Mildmay Novice Chase at Aintree and posted two 2nd-placed efforts in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival as well as the Midlands Grand National.
Galvin - 20/1 each way (33/1 antepost):
My mid-to-long term fancy for this years renewal of the Grand National is Galvin. He had been on my radar earlier this season, having won on seasonal reappearance over 3 miles, beating Run Wild Fred before then being 15-and-a-half lengths by Envoi Allen in the Ladbroke Champion Chase at Down Royal. He then went on to contest the Savills Chase where my initial verdict was one of disappointment, having faded away at the business end of the race without really laying down a challenge.
However, it soon became apparent that he had a kissing spine which require some minor surgery which had then kept him off the track until the Cheltenham Festival. But before we get to that, we should rewind back to 2021...
Galvin ran out a one and a half-length victor in the 2021 National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival which saw him stay on strongly to beat Next Destination. Soon after he was being touted by connections as a Grand National horse but stepped up to the challenge and contested some Grade 1 prizes which included a narrow defeat in the Ladbrokes Champion Chase to Paul Nicholls-trained Frodon, before putting that defeat behind him with an impressive Savills Chase success, beating A Plus Tard, earning himself a shot at the Gold Cup at Cheltenham later that season in which he stayed on to finish 4th.
Back to the here and now however, a negative is that Galvin will be right at the top of the handicap carrying 11-11 giving stablemate Delta Work a 7lb advantage. Despite that, I am still optimistic about the chances of the Ronnie Bartlett owned 9-year old, and here's why...
Galvin's spine surgery kept him off the track and out of work for a short period of time but had been entered into the 2023 Cross Country Chase which saw stablemate and Grand National opponent Delta Work go off as favorite. Galvin had to complete some specific pieces of work which Gordon Elliot had set as targets for Galvin in order for him to compete at Cheltenham. He went off 2nd-favourite finishing two-and-a-half lengths behind his stablemate. However, we should take into consideration that this was Galvins first appearance over the cross-country obstacles and he seemed to take to them like a duck to water. He is a pretty sound jumper who rarely makes a mistake and travelled throughout the race with relative ease in soft ground conditions which would have been unfavorable. It should also be taken into consideration that this was his first run in 3 months and he will certainly come on for that and strip fitter for the Grand National. He was able to track Delta Work around the Cross Country throughout the entire race and was just caught for toe in the final half-furlong having jumped the final flight neck-and-neck where it looked liked Galvin may have even got a nose in front for a split-second.
While he was impressive in being able to give his stable-mate (5-time Grade 1 winner and 3-time Cheltenham Festival winner) such a solid race on his reappearance, let's not forget that Galvin himself was 26 lengths clear of 3rd placed and 166-rated Franco De port.
We know that Galvin will be in much better condition when lining up at Aintree and that Gordon Elliot is no stranger to Grand National success having saddled Silver Birch (2007) and Tiger Roll (2018 & 2019).
I am not a big fan of backing horses who have already contested and are reappearing in the Grand National as a firm believer that the race leaves a big mark on most horses who rarely are the same afterwards, so this rules out Delta Work for me. Galvin appears for the first time, and seemed to relish the cross country obstacles at Cheltenham and I believe he'll enjoy himself over those obstacles again over a marathon trip.
While the race traditionally favours well-handicapped horses, we have seen some classier horses nearer the top of the handicap go well and very close in recent years and at 33/1 I had to have a piece of the pie before the price inevitably shortened once Galvin had run at Cheltenham. Now a best-priced 20/1 chance, I would still take the gamble in such a wide open race.
The only other negative I can find with Galvin is that since 1978, 134 runners have attempted to win the national carrying more than 11-5. This statistic was defied by Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012 and Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015.
While this may seem like a daunting statistic to overcome, these both came in the previous 10 years, which adds some substance to the point around classier horses having more success in more recent renewals. We know that Galvin certainly possess a fair amount of class.
We need only look back 12 months to when Noble Yeats became the first 7-year old to win the race since 1940, so stats are there to be broken!
Finally, Davy Russell will get the leg up on Galvin and what a story that would be to bow out with a Grand National win.
Summary:
Galvin 20/1 - each way - 6 places Bet365 (33/1 antepost)
The Big Dog 16/1 - each way - 6 places Bet365
Roi Mage 40/1 - each way - 6 places Bet365
Dunboyne 50/1 - each way - 7 places Skybet
Good luck! James
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