There are less than 48 hours to go until the curtain raiser for the 2023 Cheltenham Festival as the flag is raised, horses and jockeys scramble for position before setting off at a blistering pace to the sound of a 70,000 strong roar.
Numerous antepost slips have been torn up and thrown in the bin for good, while others have been pulled back out and taped up together as a result of last minute switcheroos.
With a clearer picture now of intended runners and races as well as declarations starting to come through (9.30am at the time of writing) I wanted to put up some selections for day one and give some detail as to why they would be my selections as I prefer people to make an informed decision for a bet of there own rather than have people put money on something blindly.
So without further ado...
Supreme Novices Hurdle - 2m 87y - Grade 1
Facile Vega currently lines up as the 15/8 favourite for the festival opener and comes with some risk given he bombed out in the grade 1 race at the Dublin racing festival earlier this year. Trends tell us that 11/12 previous winners have won on their last start before the supreme novices hurdle and while trends aren't bombproof, you would be concerned watching the race back that Facile Vega would put things right at Cheltenham given how fast he went with a strong pace almost guaranteed in the race. He was also reportedly lame for a week or two after his 4th at the DRF so there is also a question around whether he is in top shape coming into the festival.
Last week, Barry Connell labelled his runner Marine Nationale a freak and thinks he has the best horse in the race. The form of the Royal Bond appears to be relatively strong at this stage, however, like Facile Vega, there is one key trend that goes against him and is just one I cannot get away from and that is that 11/12 previous winners have all run within the last 66 days. Marine Nationale last ran on 4th December (98 days ago) and while stats and trends are there to be broken, it's a personal preference for me to avoid that bet.
The two at the top of the market undoubtedly have big careers ahead of them and it is often said that the best horses due not necessarily win this race...
Tahmuras is the first english trained horse to appear in the betting at a general 10/1 and while notching 3 wins on the spin has to be admired, the form of his Tolworth win is working out well, it's always the most reliable race to fall on with a view to Cheltenahm. However, 3rd, 4th and 5th from that race have come out and won since. But again, you do have to question what they beat too. I am of the opinion that the English novices are miles off what the Irish have to offer this year.
There is a lot of talk about the class that High Definition possesses and we saw a glimpse of that on his debut run over hurdles where he outstayed the field well to win by 4 lengths, albeit at an advantage with the final flight being omitted. A group 2 winner on the flat and having placed in a group 1 we know there is ability, but will need to transfer that over to a very competitive supreme novices hurdle where he will likely make the running, but I find it unlikely that he would be able to see the race out against this field and stay on as strongly up the hill. The fact he unseated his rider last time out when neck and neck with Facile Vega also causes a little doubt about his jumping especially over the obstacles at Cheltenham which can be a tricky course to navigate, especially for a novice.
There are more contenders further down in the betting who I think could have a squeak if they improved considerably and were the race to produce a shock but I think that is unlikely this year.
One horse near the top of the betting that I haven't mentioned, and will be my selection, is Il Etait Temps. A general 6/1 shot at the time of writing and in my opinion is one that is potentially being overlooked. Anyone who follows me on twitter will know how much ability I think this horse has, and I've written about the fact he would be a grade 1 winner in waiting for Willie Mullins if he was to remain novice hurdle over shorter trips this season. The reason why I think this horse is being overlooked is due to the fact that all eyes were on Facile Vega last time out at Leopardstown where we saw him go way too hard alongside High Definition before he weakened and finished 4th. With Facile Vega being the supreme favourite since his bumper win all the time and focus has been on him. Not much thought or credit has been given to Il Etait Temps in my mind for the fact that he was able to go with the front pair that day and track them just a few lengths off before easing past Facile Vega and win going away. The selection also has experience around Cheltenham having finished 4th in the Triumph JuvenileGrade 1 hurdle last year on his third run. It's worth noting that he was thrown into a Grade one contest by Willie Mullins on his debut for the stable which indicates to me that they this horse has the class to develop into a solid Grade 1 horse. I still think there is improvement to come from Il Etait Temps and there is the added positive of Danny Mullins getting the ride. It took a while for things to click for this horse and I believe that the penny has dropped now and that we'll see an improved run at Cheltenham which will hopefully be enough to notch a 2nd career Grade 1 for the horse and get Willie Mullins off to a winning start.
Selection: Il Etait Temps to win - 11/2 NAP
Arkle Novices Chase - 1m7f 199y - Grade 1
For me, this years arkle is a two-horse race (famous last words). Before we come to protagonists, it is worth mentioning Dysart Dynamo.
While there is a lot to like about this horse, and with the trip being a furlong shorter than his race at the Dublin racing festival, I have concerns around his appearances in past Grade 1 races where he has form figures of F54. His fall came in last years Supreme Novices Hurdle before a 122 length hammering in last of 5 at Punchestown where he once again ran too freely before weakening and tailing off. His next Grade 1 came at Leopardstown in February where he was beaten 10 and a half lengths by El Fabiolo without any impression when finishing his race.
El Fabiolo is a horse that has continued to impress me since his narrow defeat to current antepost favourite Jonbon to whom he conceded his sole defeat since moving to Willie Mullins yard. That defeat came off the back of a huge effort which saw him beaten a neck after the winner fought back up the aintree straight. El Fabiolo clattered the 2nd last that day which would have taken some momentum out of him, but was still able to lay a strong challenge down to Jonbon.
He then came out and beat Colonel Mustard by 20 lengths on his chase debut at Fairyhouse before hammering Banbridge by 10 lengths as well as his stablemates Appreciate It and Dysart Dyamo. If there is a chink in his armour then that may be his jumping, which can be a little rash at times, but there is improvement as well as a big engine which we have seen get him out of jail on a couple of occasions.
The Nicky Henderson trained Jonbon will be hoping to get the better of El Fabiolo once again at Cheltenham and pick up his 3rd career Grade 1 but comes into the race of a somewhat unconvincing prep run at Warwick where he had to dig in to beat the 137 Calico by 5 lengths. Calico has since come out and won his next race but the form of that win is somewhat questionable in my view, where he was getting weight off all, bar one rival. I am sure Jonbon will improve for the faster pace and increased number of rivals at Cheltenham.
However, while it is difficult to split the two at the top of the market, preference for me is with the Willie Mullins trained El Fabiolo who I believe is still improving over fences and has already got some considerably strong form in the book including what is a much stronger Grade 1 win than Jonbons Henry VIII Novice Chase.
Selection: El Fabiolo to win - 7/4 (13/8 general)
Ultima Handicap Chase - 3m1f - Class 1
As always, there is a big field expected for this years renewal of the Ultimate handicap chase. A race which is notorious for paying when you side which a horse wearing headgear, preferably for the first time. It also pays to stick with a British-trained horse. Winning and place trends also tend to favour those in the top 3 of the betting.
In the interest of time and not boring any readers, I'll try to keep my thoughts on this race based on those I think will go close.
While the price may be relatively skinny for most in a big field handicap, Into Overdrive strikes me a solid each-way place, especially if able to get the usual 5 places. This horse will be flying the flag for the north, trained by Mark Walford. The 8-year old is currently showing no signs of stopping the upward trajectory of his performances and could be well treated if he does continue to improve. I'm a big fan of the rehearsal handicap chase form in which the selection finished just 1 length behind Gold Cup contender L'Homme Presse and he also has some collateral form with another Gold Cup contender Ahoy Senor.
A tongue-tie will also be applied for the race. His form when the tongue-tie is applied reads 4111121.
Another at a relatively short price is Oscar Elite who came 3rd in the 2022 renewal of this race when 3-lengths 3rd to current favourite Corach Rambler. The selection runs of just 1lb higher (139) this year which could be well within his ability given he ran wide for large parts of the race last year and pulled clear with 1st and 2nd on the turn for home leaving the rest of the field 8 lengths behind. This race was likely the plan for Oscar Elite since that defeat and I think he will go close once again. Horses who have run in this race previously do tend to have a good record.
Finally one horse worth a mention is Iceo Madrik who has moved to David Pipe having previously been trained in France is the notorious type to do well in this race for the stable. It is hard to gauge his past form but you would expect to see an improved run for the change of stable added to the fact that tongue-tie and cheek-pieces are applied for the first time. At 50/1, this could be worth a small nibble for interest.
Selections:
Into Overdrive each way - 7/1
Oscar Elite each way - 11/1
Iceo Madrik each way - 50/1 currently with bet365 (33/1 general)
Champion Hurdle - 2m 87y - Grade 1
There really isn't much to write about with respect to this years renewal of the Champion Hurdle and I believe we are watching what could be up there as one of the best horses of all time by the end of his career if he continues on the steep upwards trajectory. I can't wait to see Constitution Hill again in the flesh on Tuesday, hopefully in the winners enclosure.
State Man certainly warrants respect, but I fully expect him to be playing second fiddle to Constitution Hill. I would be surprised if anything else came within 10/15 lengths of state man.
Selection: No bet
Mares Hurdle - 2m3f 200y - Grade 1
This is a really exciting race and probably the race of the day on paper. We haven't seen a mares hurdle clash so much depth since the 2017 when Apples Jade ran on stoutly to beat the Mullins-trained pair Vroum Vroum Mag and Limini.
As a racing fan, I want to see former Champion Hurdle winner Honeysuckle go out on a high at the Cheltenham Festival and win the mares, however, I do believe that sadly she doesn't quite have the battle or ability that she once possessed to see out her race. I really hope I'm proved wrong.
After weeks of speculation around where Marie's Rock will race, she has now been declared for this race against her own sex which in my view gives her the best chance of a winner in comparison with the stayers hurdle. We then have the Mullins-trained Brandy Love who clearly has class despite her less-than-impressive return to action last month which will have been nothing more than a pipe opener and to get her fit for the Festival.
Stable companion Echoes in Rain also comes in here slightly under the radar in my view after as she looked to be crying out for a step up in trip and will be coming home strong off the pace.
Lining up we also have Epatante who is another Champion Hurdle and has twice placed in the same race. While also respect the threat that Epatante poses given her retained ability and form around Cheltenham, I can't help but feel that there are other mares who are on their way to peaking whereas like Honeysuckle, Epatante is probably just creeping down the hill, albeit nowhere near as quickly as Honeysuckle appears to be.
It would also be an injustice not to mention last years Mares Novices Hurdle winner Love Envoi who comes here off the back of a good 13-length win in a listed hurdle win at Sandown but where that form proves to be strong enough is yet to be determined but appears to be yet another horse on the upward trajectory and has to be considered.
My selection for this race is Brandy Love. I was initially critical of her reappearance until I took a step back and recognised that fact that she was going right-handed and giving plenty of weight away to rivals. Added to the fact that she needed that run after a lay off.
That day she was beaten by Queens Brook who I think will be comfortably beaten by the selection in the rematch and there is collateral form with Shewearsitwell who beat Gordon Elliots mare by 4-lengths. I think this would be eclipsed by Brandy Love at her best.
While I can understand why Nicky Henderson's Maries Rock is the current 3/1 favourite, I do question her form. She did very well to win the 2022 renewal, however, in 2nd was Queens Brook, who's form this is season is pretty sketchy at best.
After Cheltenham, Maries Rock went on to beat Stormy Ireland staying on well to win by 1.5 lengths but that piece of form doesn't fill me with confidence. On her reappearance, she then went and beat Stayers Hurdle contender Dashel Drasher, who in my opinion has posted his best form over 3 miles.
In short, at the price, I think Maries Rock is there to be shot at and I'll take a chance on Willie Mullins having Brandy Love in peak condition for the mares hurdle. It should also be noted that Paul Townend has opted to ride Brandy Love over stable companion Echoes In Rain who won't be far away. Willie Mullins has also trained the winners of Cheltenham Festival races restricted to Mares 15/21 times.
Selection: Brandy Love to win - 7/1
Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle - 2m 87y - Class 1
No real strong fancy in this race but one of interest would by Byker for Charles Byrnes. Phillip Byrnes will be back on board claiming 5lbs which gives Byker a beautiful racing weight of 10-5 and I also think Byker has a few more pounds up his sleeve to go to battle with.
While Patrick Mullins recently claimed he'd be disappointed it Tekao was not a graded horse in waiting, it should be noted that Willie Mullins record in the Boodles stands at 0 wins from 18 runners.
Small bet for interest.
Selection: Byker to win - 13/2
National Hunt Amateur Jockeys' Novices Chase - 3m5f 201y
I am struggling to side with the favourite in this race, especially at 5/4 at the time of writing. Like most, there will be question marks around whether he stays. However, the favourite, while he may be the classiest horse on paper has only won once over fences in 9 outings and is not the greatest of jumpers. The only horse of interest is one who I will wait to back on the day if the ground is not too deep and boggy. That horse is Chemical Energy who was sent over to Cheltenham in October which indicates to me that this was the plan and was being given a spin around the course. That day he hammered Mahler Mission, who is currently a shorter price, by 61 lengths on the bridle. The booking of Jamie Codd is also a big positive. This is also a race that Gordon likes to target having won 5/12 previous renewals
Selection: Chemical Energy to win - 13/2
Good luck.
James
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