Day three get us started with another novice chase this year which is followed by what is probably the trickiest handicap to solve in the national hunt calendar. We get to see another current star of the sport in Shishkin line up in the Ryanair Chase which will be followed by the Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle featuring which is probably shaping up to be one of, if not THE race of the festival on paper. The final three races then given us a mares novices hurdle to get stuck into as well as two handicap chases including the Kim Muir handicap chase for amateur riders.
Turners Novices Chase - 2m3f 168y - Grade 1
I think we are looking at a fairly straight forward renewal of the Turners Novices Chase this year. Mighty Potter is clear favourite for this and deservedly so. I think it is his race to lose but is now short enough at even money.
The only niggling factor in my mind would be looking bad at his last visit to Cheltenham where he lined up in the Supreme Novices Hurdle after being well fancied by the Gordon Elliot camp. He got a bit warm on his way down to the start and was soon pulled up by Jack Kennedy. Whether the occasion got to him, or whether he just didn't travel across the water well who knows. But on ability and form, he is the one to beat.
Should Mighty Potter bomb out, then Banbridge would be the one to pick up the pieces. He has course and festival form, having won the 2022 Martin Pipe and then winning at the November meeting earlier this season. He was easily beaten beaten by Mighty Potter at Fairyhouse where 20 lengths separated them, demonstrating how far apart these two are.
Appreciate It steps up in trip for Willie Mullins. He put the field to the sword in the 2021 renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, winning by 24 lengths so is another with festival winning form in the book. However, at the age of 9 and stepping up in trip for the first time against a horse who has more experience over fences and on a big upward curve in Mighty Potter, as well as fellow festival winner Banbridge, it would be hard to feel confident about parting with your cash to back him at the current price of 4/1.
Selection: Mighty Potter / Banbridge - forecast
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle - 2m7f 213y - Class 1
A big field to get stuck into here so I will focus my efforts on my bets for the race.
First up is the Jonjo O'Neil trained An Tailliur which is now a general 12/1 shot but as shorts as 8/1 with some firms. Admittedly I couldn't really find an angle in this race in the build up until a couple of weeks ago when looking at whether the favourite, Shoot First, was worthy. The common theme on the preview circuit was that Shoot First would take all of the beating. When watching his qualifier back, I looked into the 4th placed An Tailliur who was running his first race of the season. He stayed on well enough to finish ahead of the rest and qualify on what was he reappearance for this season. While his prior form when fresh reads 11, he will have needed the run in what was a stiff 3 miles around Cheltenham. He has not raced since, and in my view that is to protect his mark.
In the qualifier, Shoot First was carrying 10-7 with claimer Philip Byrnes taking off a further 5lbs. An Tailliur was carrying 11-5. That's a 17lb advantage and An Tailliur was able to finish 2 and a half-lengths off the 3/1 pertemps final favourite.
Shoot First was pulled out of the race, but the pair were due to line up of level weights off marks of 139 (11-6) with Byrnes claiming 5lbs on his mount. In theory, this puts An Tailliur at a 12lb advantage and puts him 10 lengths ahead of Shoot First who was 3-times a shorter price than An Tailliur currently is and with fitness on his side I think he has to come into consideration.
It should also be noted that Jonjo O'Neil has trained the winner of this race more than any other trainer with 4 previous winners. An Tailliur has also never finished outside the first 3 when competing in handicaps with form figures of 211111U12123.
Selections:
An Tailliur each way - 11/1 (16/1 antepost)
Ryanair Chase - 2m4f 127y - Grade 1
One of racings current and most popular stars heads the market for this race and surely takes the beating. It was great to see Shishkin looking back to his best when winning the Grade 1 Ascot Chase by 16 lengths with relative ease from the Nichols trained Pic D'orhy. You feel that the step up in trip was needed and that the Ryanair chase should be right up his street, however, at 8/11 at the time of writing, not a bet I would want to get involved win. There is a hole poke in Blue Lord's December Grade 1 win at Leopardstown where Chacun Pour Soi took a fence with him at the third-last which ended his hope of winning. had he avoided making that mistake he would have been the eventual winner in my opinion. Regardless, Blue Lord then went on to be beaten by Gentleman De Mee at the Dublin Racing Festival which wouldn't give me much confidence if I was looking to back him. Blue Lord also posted a narrow-margin win in the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase from Tornado Flyer.
It would also be quite difficult to back Envoi Allen with any confidence and you get the feeling that nobody really knows what trip he wants at this stage of his career. His King George effort over Christmas was a tame effort and his Ladbrokes Champion Chase wasn't exactly inspiring.
Janidil was the best of the rest in last years renewal of the Ryanair and could well feature in the places this year but the price is skinny enough for an each way bet.
That leaves me with Fury Road, who is probably not running in the right race with regards to trip. He would need 3m+ at this stage of his career but isn't good enough to win a gold cup this year with so much depth. Given the muddy conditions that we can probably expect now, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him plodding through the mud and following shishkin home.
Selection: Fury Road each way - 11/1
Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle - 2m7f 213y - Grade 1
This years Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle is potential race of the week material. Flooring Porter will be looking to make it 3 Stayers Hurdle wins in a row and I think he has a great chance.
Teahupoo will love the rain as it continues to fall and will give him his best chance of winning here. He lowered the colours of National Hunt racings wondermare, Honeysuckle, for the first time in his career when winning the Hattons Grace at Fairyhouse in December. He then followed up with another win in soft ground in the Galmoy hurdle where he hammered former Supreme Novices hurdle winner Summerville Boy by 15 lengths. While those two wins may seems impressive on paper, the truth is that Summerville boy is a 145 rated 11-year old and Honeysuckle is sadly past her best, having been outstayed by a couple of 3-milers in Teahupoo and Klassical Dream. As a result, I find the 4/1 for Teahupoo very difficult to entertain.
Charles Byrnes Blazing Khal looked as though he would be a big player in the stayers hurdle divison this season having registered 3 wins on the spin last season over trips ranging from 2m3f to 3m before suffering a setback. He won on his reappearance well enough, beating Meet and Greet by 3 lengths but there are big questions marks around what he beat. There has also been news of suffering with an infection and need to complete a particular piece of work to get to the race, which he appears to have done. However, that aside, I struggle to see him being a player in the race having not beat a great deal in either of his last 4 career starts added to the fact that he has only run over the trip once before.
Old fan favourite Paisley Park will line up again for Emma Lavelle and Aidan Coleman. Now an 11-year old and becoming less reliable in terms of consistency, it would be hard to expect him to feature, but at the same time, you just wouldn't be surprised if he did battle up the hill into a place. I would love to see him do so for popular owner Andrew Gemmell.
This year also see's two French-trained horses lined up and it's difficult to read into the form of Henri Le Farceur, but Gold Tweet came over in January and won the Grade 1 Cleeve hurdle by 3 lengths from Dashl Drasher. However, that is not the strongest piece of form in the book. What the French horses may well have in there favour is the ground.
Home By the Lee is a tricky one for me to work out. He has beaten some of this field, including dual-stayers hurdle winner Flooring Porter twice this season over 2m4f and over 3m trips.
While the bare form of those wins may look good, there are question marks around whether Flooring Porter was at his best in the race of 3m over Christmas at Leopardstown. The 2m4f race would have been completely inadequate for Flooring Porter who looks to needs the 3m which means he hit the line running. It has also been well documented the issues that he has suffered this season but the camp appear to be growing in confidence about his chances. He is also not the simplest horse to tame. In the 2022 renewal, Flooring Porter made the running as he did in the previous year and didn't look troubled at any stage of the race. Home By The Lee was back in 6th that day, just 7 and a half lengths off the winner having been up with the pace for large parts of the race before being outpaced and staying on up the hill. He does look to be a much improved horse this year and warrants respect, but I am not convinced that we have seen Flooring Porter close to his best yet this season and think he still takes all of the beating.
Whether it is a case of heart over head for me I don't know, but I like to think that the analysis that I have outlined above is pretty neutral and as a result I find it difficult to oppose the horse that has been there and done it twice already. Part of the gamble is on whether he will be at 100. Stable confidence suggests he is somewhat there. Flooring Porter has also posted 5 career wins on the ground.
Selections:
Flooring Porter to win - 6/1
Flooring Porter / Home By The Lee - Reverse Forecast
Magners Plate Handicap Chase - 2m4f 127y - Class 1
No a race that I will look to get involved in. The favourite So Scottish could well have tons in hand, but at the price, it's not a bet for me.
Selection: No bet
Jack De Bromhead Mares Novices Hurdle - 2m 179y - Grade 2
Nicky Henderson has another potential superstar on his hands in Luccia who heads up the betting for this years renewal of the mares novices hurdle contest. She is 4/4 for and has looked awesome on every start for the Seven Barrows handler, including in 2 listed novice hurdle racing winning by 5 and a half lengths and 11 lengths in impressive style. While she can look a tad novices with her jumping, there is an engine under the bonnet to get her out of trouble.
The Mullins horse which the preview circuit, namely Ruby Walsh, can't get enough of is Lot Of Joy. She was half a length 2nd to the now 120-rated Deep Cave who then went on to finish 45th behind Good Land by 4 and a half lengths, and Lot Of Joy looked to have needed the run that day. She then came out and won her maiden hurdle at Leopardstown in February in fine style when winning by 12-lengths.
The talk about love of joy has been dominant when comparing to poor old Ashroe Diamond who has barely received a mention despite some nice form in the book. She followed up on her maiden hurdle win with a good 3rd (by 4 lengths) in the Grade One Royal Bond won by Supreme contender Marine Nationale. She then followed up with a 9-length 3rd to Supreme favourite Facile Vega before posting her first Graded victory in the Grade 3 mares Novices hurdle at Fairyhouse staying on to beat Jetara by 1 and three-quarter lengths. Ashroe Diamoned will also carry a 5lb penalty in this race, a deficit overcome by the likes of Limini and Laurina in recent yers.
Despite these 3 dominating the top of the market, I want to take them on with a horse that I feel is quite over-priced.
The Model Kingdom won her maiden hurdle at the first time of asking before contesting a Grade 3 mares novices hurdle where she was a 4-length third to Magical Zoe with the form of that race working of extremely well with 3 wins(two runners) and 2 places from 9 runs.
She then went on to win a novice hurdle at Punchestown by 4 and a half lengths from Halibut before another 3rd when 7 and a half lengths behind the 129-rated, Elliot-trained Liberty Dance.
The Model Kindom's next race saw her finish a 6-length 2nd to Impaire Et Passe in the Moscow Flyer who is current strong favourite for the Ballymore Novices hurdle and has looked every bit a superstar in his two runs over hurdles for Willie Mullins. That race has also produced 1 winner and 2 places from 4 runs subsequently.
What is important to note about The Model Kingdom is that she has been quite busy earlier this season, running 5 times between her maiden hurdle on 3rd October 2022 and the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer on 15th January 2023. She comes into Cheltenham off the back of a 60-day break and her form figures after a break read 111. She also has form on soft/heavy ground.
In a race that looks to have a big field at this stage (form reads 111213 in fields of 10 runners or more) her racing experience will stand her in good stead and ground she has produced good performances on. While the top 3 in the betting look classy we should remember that this is a novice race and Cheltenham can be a tricky course for inexperienced horses to navigate, with their tasks made harder with ground likely to be soft, and possibly heavy ground, I will take a chance on a horse that should handle conditions, the occasion and the big field.
Selection: The Model Kingdom each way - 33/1
Kim Muir Amateur Jockey's Handicap Chase - 3m2f - Class 2
No opinion in the race for me. No bet.
Selection: No bet.
Good luck.
James