Day two of the festival kicks off with two races which will usually throw up some future starts from the Ballymore Novices Hurdle as well as future gold cup contenders coming out of the Brown Advisory novices chase.
The feature race of the day is the Queen Mother Champion Chase which has also showcased some of biggest starts in National Hunt racing over the years.
Among those are a couple of tricky handicaps to get stuck into as well as the Cross Country, with the day being rounded off with the Champion Bumper.
Ballymore Novices Hurdle - 2m5f - Grade 1
The current market leader for the race is Impaire Et Passe, who won the Grade 1 Moscow Flyer Novices Hurdle on just his 2nd start, dropping back in trip to beat the more experienced The Model Kingdom by 6 and a half lengths staying on strongly and winning with relative ease. The 4th placed horse in that race has since gone on to win and place in 3 outings since.
Second-favourite for the race, and long time market leader is Hermes Allen, trained by Paul Nicholls and made it 3 wins from 3 starts over hurdles when 4 and three-quarter length winners in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. While the form of that race is working out pretty well compared to previous years' renewals it is worth noting that the race attracted more runners (and potentially a better field) as a result of a postponement elsewhere in the racing calendar. Exactly which race that was doesn't spring immediately to mind unfortunately.
Anyhow, regardless of how this seasons challow hurdle form is interpreted, the fly in the ointment is as follows:
- 0/12 previous winners of the Challow Hurdle have gone on to follow up with a win at the Cheltenham festival that season.
- Of the previous 12 winners of the Challow Hurdle 6/12 winners ran in the Ballymore Novices Hurdle and 0 won.
- Of the previous 12 winners of the Challow Hurdle 4/12 winners ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and 0 won.
Quite a damning statistic for Hermes Allen to overcome.
We then have Gaelic Warrior and there doesn't seem to be any clarity on where he would be running until he did not appear in the Supreme declarations. It's hard to see how any of his form stacks up in comparison to others in the market.
Good Land won the Grade 1 2m6f novice hurdle at Leopardstown on his latest start and my opinion of that race is that there looked to be a few horses in behind him that were crying out for a trip that day, and I'm not sure how Good Land would fair against horses made for the 2m5f Grade one around Cheltenham in comparison.
Champ Kiely is Mullins 2nd runner in the race and will be partnered by Danny Mullins again who took the ride when he pulled a little in the early stages of the royal bond won by 2nd fav for the Supreme Novices Hurdle Marine Nationale. He was also behind Irish point that day who he reversed the form with in his next start in the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas Novices Hurdles beating him by 2 and a half lengths staying on well.
I backed Impaire Et Passe for this race a few weeks ago at 7/2 after his comfortable win in the Grade 1 Moscow Flyer which regularly throws up Cheltenham Fesitval winners, albeit more predominantly in the Supreme. However, there is some good Grade 1 form on offer between all of the Irish horses but gut instinct tells me that after just 2 more, Impaire Et Passe, who already looks like a very straight forward horse, as more improvement in him and I think we could see something impressive in the Ballymore. He looks to possess a big engine and the slight step up in trip should suit him down to the ground. Given his price at the time of writing (8/1) I will also have a small each way bet on Champ Kiely who bounced back last time out and should run well again at Cheltenham.
Selection:
Impaire Et Passe to win - 7/2 (antepost) NAP
Champ Kiely each way - 8/1 general
Brown Advisory Novices Chase - 3m 80y - Grade 1
I think it is another favourite here who will take all of the beating in the 3m novice hurdle grade 1 contest, especially if the ground is soft. Gerri Colombe looks to possess class and just knows how to win with his record now 8 wins from 8 starts.
The Real Whacker is a really smart jumper and is now 2/2 over fences, winning the Grade 2 Dipper Novices chase at Cheltenham last time out which has thrown up some future Cheltenham winners including the winners of last years Brown Advisory renewal, L'Homme Presse.
Thyme Hill has been mentioned quite a lot of the Cheltenham preview circuit given his form and experience around Cheltenham, but the sticking point for me is that he is yet to win at Cheltenham and that presents an issue for me from a betting perspective. His jumping is also questionable.
Sir Gerhard is a perfect 2/2 when racing at Cheltenham having won the 2021 Champion Bumper and following up in 2022 by winning the Ballymore Novices Hurdle. The softening ground will present no issues either, but the fact that he has only run once over fences before he bid to win the Brown Advisory presents an issues for me as I would like a horse to have more experience over fences come into a Grade 1 at Cheltenham.
Galia Des Liteaux is the only other runner in the field of interest and that is only if the ground comes up very soft. She loves the mud and will be in receipt of 7lbs from her rivals as a result of her mares allowance and could be a player if the rain does continue to fall.
Selection: Gerri Colombe to win - 13/8
Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle - 2m5f - Class 1
Camprond is now the current market leader at a best priced 6/1 and would be too short to back now in my opinion. I had a small each way antepost wager on the basis that I thought that this race could have been the place since his 4th in this race last off 2lbs higher mark. However, while his 4th last year came on soft ground, he doesn't appear to be the same horse this season and I would still have given him a squeak given the colours he will be sporting in this race, however, the ground will go firmly against him now.
Another one I had bookmarked for handicaps was Iroko for joint-trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero. He is their sole runner at the festival and so will be treating whichever race he runs in as their gold cup. However, it looks like he will now be lining up in the Martin Pipe on Friday, so I will save my write up on him for then.
At this stage I don't really have much of an opinion on the race would be happy to go into this race as a spectator rather than a punter.
Selections:
Camprond each way - 16/1 antepost (No bet at 6/1)
Queen Mother Champion Chase - 1m7f 199y - Grade 1
Wednesday's feature race see last years Arkle winner Edwardstone head up the market at 6/4 with 2022 Champion Chase winner Energumene jsut behind as a general 13/8 shot. The other of the leading trio is the Gary Moore trained Editeur Du Gite who saw off both rivals with a cute ride by Niall Houlihan who appeared to ride his rivals to sleep which saw Energumene fail to get into the race and saw Tom Cannon make his move a little too late.
Bar the three at the top of the market, we have 2021 runner up Nube Negra returning for a 2nd attempt although his chances of winning have now been claimed by the ground.
Second in the 2022 renewal was Funambule Sivola who flies the flag for Venetia Williams and he will relish the soft conditions on Wednesday but you question whether he retains the ability he had last season having been hammered by Editeur Du Gite twice this season including in the rescheduled Clarence House Chase at Cheltenham.
Paul Nichols saddles Greaneteen who has finished 4th twice in two trips to Cheltenham, including in the 2021 edition of this race when 2 lengths behind Putthekettleon. However, he has already been comprehensively beaten Funambule Sivola this season who doesn't really feature as a player in this years race and therefore neither of the two will enter my calculations when picking a winner.
I think the winner lies within the top 3 in the betting with less personal preference for Energumene based on the form of his win last year. The race completely fell apart with Shishkin having been pulled up and his issues since have been well documented. Chacun Pour soi also unseated his rider and the rest field was never going to be a match for the winner. He was then beaten by Editeur Du Gite when making a mistake at the last when coming under pressure with Edwardstone alongside him as they jumped together and Edwardstone went clear finishing second by a nose hair.
While I do think that Edwardstone will be ridden much closer to the action this time around, my gut tells me that the Clarence House win was no fluke for Editeur Du Gite and Niall Houlihan who timed his ride to perfection. With Willie Mullins' Gentleman De Mee being pulled out, Editeur Du Gite will get his own way out in front again in the race and while Tom Cannon will be closer to the selection, and while I think Edwardstone is relatively ground versatile I do think he may be seen to use his turn of foot to better effect on better ground and Editeur Du Gite way be too hard to peg back from the front on the continually softening ground.
Selection: Editeur Du Gite to win - 11/2 (5/1 general)
Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase - 3m6f 27y
No real interest in this race or much to add by way of analysis. I think it's a simple case of Delta Work winning this for Gordon Elliot.
Of course Gordon Elliot lines Galvin up and I am not sure why he would line another horse up to take on his own 11/10fav. My opinion is that they are using this race as a stepping stone for Galvin to get a spin around the cross country fences with a view to a run in the Aintree Grand National in April. Gordon Elliot has followed the same route with the likes of Cause of Causes, Tiger Roll and Delta Work.
I have had a small bet on Galvin to win the Grand National at 33/1.
Selection: Delta Work to win - No bet
Grand Annual Handicap Chase - 1m7f 199y
Another big field handicap to get stuck into so I'll restrict my word count to my selection for the race.
The one I can't get away from in this race is Sizing Pottsie. Formerly trained by Jessica Harrington, Sizing Pottsie is now trained by David Pipe.
Sizing Pottsie has some Graded form in the book, winning a grade 2 and a grade 3, each on soft/heavy ground over 2 miles and has posted some good form in hot Grade 1 & 2 contests during his career to date including 10-length 3rd nehind Energumene in the Hilly Way Grade 2 and 6-length 2nd to Melon in the Red Mills chase.
Since moving over to David Pipe, Sizing Pottsie won a novice hurdle by 18 lengths (retained his novice status) completely unchallenged. He then finished a 5 and a half-length 2nd to Paul Nicholls Supreme Novices Hurdle contender Tahmuras in a listed race at Haydock with Tahmuras going on to win the Tolwort(form working out well) and contend in the Festival opener.
From there he was tailed off in a handicap hurdle over 2m4f which would have been inadequate given his career best performances have come over the shorter trips.
From there he went on to be tailed off in the Grade 2 Desert Orchied chase at Kempton, before tailing off again in the rescheduled Clarence House chase at Cheltenham in January.
While this is a 'gamble' I'm happy for that to be that case at the current price of 25/1 but it appears that David Pipe has been doing a bit of smart placing in order to protect Sizing Pottsie's mark and bring it down. He is now running off 140 and I feel that is more than a winnable mark in this race which doesn't really throw up any obvious contenders this year.
Cheekpiecs will also be applied for the first time which could bring out further improvment.
Selection: Sizing Pottsie each way - 25/1
Wetherby's Champion Bumper - 2m 87y - Grade 1
There is no real strong fancy for me in this. There was one horse that I couldn't wait to have a bet on and that was Ballyburn. I think there is serious class in that horse who seems to possess a really sharp turn of foot and looked every bit a Ballymore horse on his debut run for Willie Mullins. While I'm not naive enough to know that these type of opinions can be quite premature, my gut was screaming Ballymore and he is one I my have an antepost wager on.
In terms of betting for this years champion bumper, there is no real opinion I have on the race which is diluted by William Mullins runners. This may be a race where I wait and see where the money goes from the Mullins camp and follow suit. It usually pays to do so.
Selection: No bet
Good luck.
James
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